Official "Who Do We Draft in First Round" Thread

[Galileo]

Tortoise and the Hare, my friend. Raji being the tortoise, Harvin the Hare.

Perimeter players make big highlight plays, no doubt, and toiling in the trenches doesn't get you on ESPN. But I think we all know that games are won and lost right there and a good lineman is worth every bit as much as a good returner/receiver.

Raji was up and down but you can see the potential. If the coaches can develop that, we'll have a horse on our defensive line for years and I'll take that over a flashy perimeter guy any day.

[Fantasy Ninja]

Originally Posted by think

Which rookie had more of an impact in the Packer-Viking games, Raji or Harvin?

That doesn't make your last statement less absurd.

[Hobstweedle]

Originally Posted by cgc73

Raji didn't have the big, DRoY candidate type season that you'd love to get out of the first defensive linemen chosen. But there were certainly plays where he blew up offensive linemen and showed why he was drafted where he was. Though it was an up-and-down rookie season for him he showed me enough that I have pretty high hopes for him going forward.

cgc, may I tweak that a little bit? I think Raji had an up-an-down season as a player, in a general sense. But when you salt in the fact that he's a rookie, I think he had an excellent season. I might be splitting hairs here... and God knows that when he was on the field, the opposing team certainly wasn't going to go easier on him just because he's a rook. But as far as grading him based on his individual characteristics, I think he graded out in the "B" range. And "B" is Honor Roll territory, right? Seriously, he did make the All Rookie Team, and there were worthy candidates he beat out for that honor.

[Hobstweedle]

Originally Posted by Galileo

But I think we all know that games are won and lost right there and a good lineman is worth every bit as much as a good returner/receiver.

I know that, but I'm not sure the poster you are addressing that to knows that.

Anyway, I will go so far as to say that a great returner can change a game. "Can" as in "may," or "might." However, if you don't have a guy like Raji to anchor that 3-4 line, you will get run on. "Will" as in "it's gonna happen." And if you can't stop the run in the NFL, you're toast, without question. The same can't be said just because you don't have some dynamic returner.

No, there are many reasons Thompson chose Raji over Harvin. And so far I've referenced merely one reason, and that one applies on the field. I guess we had better get a hold of some fine, south Florida sensimilla if we are to discuss the off the field differences.

[cgc73]

But as far as grading him based on his individual characteristics, I think he graded out in the "B" range.

Oh, a B is about where I'd put him. He made the all-rookie team. He was on ESPN's rookie watch much of the season. And most importantly he came in and contributed -- if a guy contributes his rookie season he's done ok. Expecting a rookie to dominate or make the pro-bowl (go Clay!) isn't particular realistic. Sure it happens but how many rookies go to the pro-bowl? I haven't checked but I'd guess it's about 1 / year (though this year we had several). And ironically a 1st round rookie may have an easier time getting there than a 3rd year player who was picked in the 6th round -- the rookie has name recognition right away. But it's still very much the exception -- and I'd guess the interior line is the hardest place to do it.

All-in-all it looks like TT had a great draft last year, Matthews, Raji, Jones, Lang, and Johnson all contributed to varying degrees. He hits this next one just as well and the Packers will be pretty well stacked.

[reck]

I too was worried about Raji’s Senior Bowl performance and I was also disappointed in his production as a rookie. But I didn’t see any evidence that he wasn’t motivated and that’s what I was worried about. I think Raji is going to be very good if he can stay healthy. He has incredibly quick feet for a human bowling ball. He’ll be stronger going into next season and he will have experienced for himself what goes on at the LOS in the NFL.

I've always said that a first round pick has to make an immediate impact on the team, unless you select a QB to groom for the future. I hate to say it but a returner like Percy Harvin would have had more of an impact.

IMO this is overstated significantly. A first round pick has to make an immediate impact on the team or what? They can’t win a championship? That’s not true. Wolf’s first rounder in 1996 was (drum roll) John Michels.

Over time a GM has to do well in the draft generally and in the first round particularly (look at Wolf’s first rounders before the Michels misate: Buckley, brent, Simmons, Teague, Aaron Taylor, and Craig Newsome), or just be spectacular in free agency, trades and later in the draft. But a team can overcome bad first rounders and well-run teams can wait for a first rounder to develop. IOW, what’s the value of “immediate impact” vs. long-term impact? Go back to 2006: Thompson took Hawk and passed on Vernon Davis. A year after that draft Thompson looked vindicated but now which player would you prefer. Imagine Davis and Finley in a two tight end formation. Or don’t, but just consider which is more likely to have a greater long-term impact on his team.

Back to the case at hand: Hobstweedle is right - there were concerns about Harvin's character and now there should be concerns about his migraine headaches. So just like Hawk/Davis decision, let's see how the Raji pick looks after 3 years.

[kainen]

To infer that Raji was a failure, or a disappointing player is just not knowing what the heck you're talking about. IMHO

The kid came in, had an ankle issue and missed some playing time. BUT when he DID play, he was solid so I would also grade him at B. Interior lineman is not a glamorous position and few get national name recognition. Just look at how much of a household name Gilbert Brown is. Sure, we all know him but methinks you aks the average Joe and they won't have a clue.

I fully expect next season to be a continuance of his success and a building block for a very stellar future with our team.

Originally Posted by cgc73

All-in-all it looks like TT had a great draft last year, Matthews, Raji, Jones, Lang, and Johnson all contributed to varying degrees. He hits this next one just as well and the Packers will be pretty well stacked.

Personally, I am excited and really looking forward to this next draft. If Thompson and Co can have a repeat of last year's, methinks some detractors will have to have a sincere change of heart regarding his committment to winning the big one sooner rather than later.

I plan to be there, at Lambeau, for the day. The excitement in the building last year was palpable. Anyone else planning for it?

[Hobstweedle]

No, I won't be able to make it. But draft day last year was HUGE for me and my Packer buds. Based on last year's overwhelming success - yeah, I said it - I expect next year to be an even bigger party.

[think]

Because of what you pay a first round pick, and especially an early first round pick, you need them to start paying that back immediately. You also paid much of that in bonus money that you pay no matter what.

I'm surprised that many of you grade Raji a B. I wouldn't give any of the inside linemen higher than a C+. They are an average group and C is average. Do any of you feel that they are better than average? Did we get any pressure up the middle? Was Raji our best inside lineman this season?

It isn't like nose tackle is a difficult position to learn. You neutralize the offensive lineman that you line up against. An average [C] nose tackle can do that and Raji did most of the time. A good [b] nose tackle can push his man back to collapse the pocket or get his arms up to prevent passing in the middle of the field. The Packers failed miserably at this, especially against the Steelers and Cardinals. A great [A] nose tackle can toss the lineman and get into the backfield. Raji did this a couple of times but not with any consistency and usually early in games. Late in games Raji was almost non-existent.

Raji played OK............... for a third round pick. The Packers payed Champagne prices for tap beer. I hope he ages well!

[cgc73]

Because of what you pay a first round pick, and especially an early first round pick, you need them to start paying that back immediately.

That's an effect of the broken system though for how high draft pick rookies are paid. If it continues along this tract with the top-10 and especially top-5 getting absurd contracts will they be a bust if they don't make the HoF? The salaries have no grounding in reality and thus I don't think it's reasonable to measure the draftees performance against their contract (picture the salaries of those top-5 picks on a graph over the last 20 years, now imagine their impact their rookie year, it's ridiculous to imagine the contribution those players make could increase year after year at the same rate as the salaries). If the NFL had a system similar to the NBA then Raji's contract wouldn't be part of the discussion, only his play on the field would be, and that's what the discussion should be about.

Of course that's not going to make a team's director of finances feel any better about a player who's getting paid like an all-pro but not performing that way right off the bat.

[Dude]

Back on topic, I'd like to see an offensive playmaker drafted high.

CJ Spiller
Jahvid Best

Really liked the way Grant ran the last few weeks of the season, but its frustrating to never really see him catch the ball. Spiller and Best are both fast, have moves, and have good hands.

[reck]

Originally Posted by think

Because of what you pay a first round pick, and especially an early first round pick, you need them to start paying that back immediately. You also paid much of that in bonus money that you pay no matter what.

Again, or WHAT? As I posted above, a GM has to do well in the draft but every GM has missed on first rounders. And the money is of course important but there's no reason a first rounder has to "start paying that back immediately". If Raji plays at a pro bowl level in his third year, and plays well for the Packers over the next 10 years, what then? Still a bad pick because he didn't pay 'em back immediately. That doesn't make any sense, does it?

[Rossum20]

Originally Posted by think

Because of what you pay a first round pick, and especially an early first round pick, you need them to start paying that back immediately. You also paid much of that in bonus money that you pay no matter what.

I'm surprised that many of you grade Raji a B. I wouldn't give any of the inside linemen higher than a C+. They are an average group and C is average. Do any of you feel that they are better than average? Did we get any pressure up the middle? Was Raji our best inside lineman this season?

It isn't like nose tackle is a difficult position to learn. You neutralize the offensive lineman that you line up against. An average [C] nose tackle can do that and Raji did most of the time. A good [b] nose tackle can push his man back to collapse the pocket or get his arms up to prevent passing in the middle of the field. The Packers failed miserably at this, especially against the Steelers and Cardinals. A great [A] nose tackle can toss the lineman and get into the backfield. Raji did this a couple of times but not with any consistency and usually early in games. Late in games Raji was almost non-existent.

Raji played OK............... for a third round pick. The Packers payed Champagne prices for tap beer. I hope he ages well!

You need to do your homework. DL take longer than most every position to materialize. Just because from your armchair it seems to be the simplest of positions doesn't make it so.

[SporTz FrEaK]

There are 2 guys who I absolutely love. And hopefully we can get one of them in the 1st round.

Brian Bulaga-OT-Iowa. I could see him anchoring the left side of the line for years to come.

Brandon Graham-OLB-Michigan. Played OLB and DE at Michigan, so he knows how to rush the passer. Intense...high character...non-stop motor. He'd be a great compliment opposite Matthews.

As far as 2nd round, my favorite guy right now would be Perrish Cox. Great CB with amazing ball skills.

[SporTz FrEaK]

On a sad note, Wisconsin OLB Brian Schofield tore his ACL today at the Senior Bowl practice. This will hurt his stock some. Most had him as a 3rd rounder. I can see him falling to the 5th now.

[think]

I also think that you need to find the players with non-stop energy like Clay Matthews in the first round. Physical attributes like size and speed will get you by in college but to make it in the NFL you need the motivation and endurance to go with it. I didn't set up the way the draft works. I just see what needs to happen because of it. If you're lucky enough to draft a player who turns out great, you'll likely only have his services for four years because he'll look for a bigger payday after that. If you draft a player to develop and it takes a couple of years, then you might only get two years of play. You draft these players in the later rounds with cheaper contracts.

Many college players are motivated by a large NFL contract and once they have it, they aren't as motivated and don't put forth the effort. You need to find players that love the game not just the money.

[Kakunga]

As long as TT doesn't draft a
Tony Mandrich
John Michaels
Jamal Reynolds
Justin Harrell
Type of player. It really hurts the team when you get a complete bust in the draft in the first round. We obviously need an Offensive tackle or two, a Corner and a safety and another Linebacker. Maybe a guard too as Colledge could be sent packing. Ohh yeah a punter would be helpful as our current punter was 32 out of 32 in net yards punting. I think we need to improve in that area.
How much longer can we get any performance from LT Chad Clifton? He was hurt all the time. His body is telling him the time to retire is near. According to TT in a interview there was no back-ups at Left tackles to be had so he had to go into the season with no back-up for Clifton. He should not make that mistake again. Rodgers getting sacked 40 times in the first half of the season was plain crazy bad.

[cheesespread]

On the punter note, we are lucky to pick one in the 7th round since the punters area is down this year. Not many good prospects in this years group. FA rookie would be the best route especially 2 of them too really give competiton.

[net]

C.J. Spiller. Solves a bunch of problems.
1)Change of pace back with Grant.
2)Has great hands.
3)Blazing kick returner.

This is a clear choice in the "best player available" vs. "needs" argument. The Packers can limp along with Brandon Jackson and who-zits behind him. Or you bring in a kid who could be a game breaker.

There's going to be good talent left in round 2 for the secondary. Al Harris was a sixth round choice. Nick Collins is a second rounder.

Left tackle could be a third. They let Meredyth go last year(mistake) and he was fifth rounder. Might be a starter for the Bills next year.

[cheesespread]

I believe a returner is a big must in this draft. OT CB and Safety are needs but Special Teams helps you win at least 1 or 2 games each year and s needed for any playoff push.

[Mike F]

if I was going to take an OL to take an OL, the only guy who will be their worth the pick at 23 is Pouncey. I don't think Campbell, Brown, or Ipuati as a T are worth it. And I think Pouncey does something you look for day 1, he comes in as the center and makes both Guard positions better. Wells and Spitz will never do that. Pouncey can come in play for 10 -12 years, make everyone better, and go to a couple of pro bowls. I don't think those other guys do that. If he wants a quality LT, he's going to have to pay the price to trade up and get one. I wouldn't touch Brown or Campbell with a ten foot pole. There's a reason both will be available at 23. I don't like needs drafting, but in the case of Pouncey, you get a big, bright center who is as good a player as you can expect at 23 if he's there.

[retiredgrampa]

Re; Raji vs. Harvin....Let's see which one does better THIS year. Remember Devin Hester? All but unstoppable his first year, but has declined ever since because DCs have figured out ways to minimize his talent---so much so that now daBears can't decide where he fits best. Harvin will see the same thing this year. But, OL have done their best on Raji already and there's little doubt he'll be better this year and the next several years. Then it will be easy to figure whether we were better off with the tortoise or the hare.

[cheesespread]

#23 is a little high for taking a center but we really do need one. I would see TT trade down to around 30 to 31 to do that. BUT, it sure is getting exciting as we approach this draft. I know TT will be looking for some moves and normally trying to add more picks.

OT, safety, CB, DL, LB, and center are places where we need depth and to improve to make a run to the playoffs.

If we get another excellent draft like last year. We would be pushing for a first rd bye.

[reck]

I don't see OC as a position of need. Of course you'd like to acquire an upgrade at every position but no team has the luxury of doing that. The Packers have three players to vie for the OC spot: Wells, Spitz and Dietrich-Smith. They preferred Spitz after TC and Wells, after starting for most of the season graded out better than most other OL at seasons end. If Spitz returns healthy, they have three candidates for OC (Dietrich-Smith is listed on the roster as G/C).

IMO Sitton is the safest starter on the OL at RG. And they have Colledge and Spitz, if he loses his battle with Wells to compete at LG. If they acquire/retain starters at the OT spot, Lang can compete at LG – and IMO wins the job there if given the chance and not asked to play “musical chairs”. The only things I know about Dietrich-Smith is they like him and he’s listed as G/C on the roster. If he’s any good, he can compete at OC or LG.

Compare that to OT. If no one is signed to a contract before FA starts next week, they have Lang, Barbre and Giacomini to compete at LT and RT. Who is the LT of the future (Clifton may have to be signed out of desperation but he’s not the long-term answer there)? Who is the RT of the future (Tauscher may have to be signed out of desperation but he’s the not long-term answer)? They tried like hell to move beyond Tauscher and Barbre failed in spectacular fashion and Giacomini was apparently so bad he wasn’t even tried at starting RT when Barbre fell on his face. Thompson should thank the good Lord Tauscher didn’t sign with the Chiefs after his in-season workout there. The needs on the OL are obvious. IMO the needs on O are blatantly obvious: They need OTs!! And not just one.

In a JSO story yesterday Gil Brandt is quoted as saying he’s never seen a group of OL like this one. IMO Thompson FINALLY HAS to address the future at the OT spots and the stars have aligned to enable him to do it in his favorite fashion: Via the draft.

As I said it’d be great to upgrade any position on the team. But Thompson doesn’t have the luxury of ignoring the future at the OL’s most important position. And if he’s smart he’ll try to shore up the future at RT too (to allow Lang to play what may be his best spot, LG). Ask yourself this question: How many players has Thompson acquired in his tenure as GM who were/are LT – and ONLY LT – candidates? My answer is one: Meredith. And he risked losing him in favor of keeping a guy (Breno) who was so bad he didn’t replace a guy at RT who was historically bad. I don’t know if Meredith will ever be a legit NFL LT. But I do know it is long past time for Thompson to seriously address that position.